New Zealand's (Well Overdue) Economic Recession
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears."
It's taken a while, but can you see it yet? Yup. New Zealand is in a recession. No, there is no 'revival' or 'optimism':
"Average asking prices on Realestate.co.nz down... since February... while stock for sale hits a 12-year high."...runs the headline in NZ finance news... At last! Is reality sinking in?
- Twelve years ago, in the small, central North Island village where I live, there was one maybe two properties for sale. Today, there are 52.
- This month, back in 2021, the whole of New Zealand had ~20,000 properties/land for sale. Today, there are >45,000 listed.
Things are a-changing, and it ain't looking good. Swedish banker Anna Breman, head of globalist-led NZ Reserve Bank, agreed. Here's a 1 min clip from one of her colleagues:
Unsurprisingly, house sales (including auctions) are down as banks tighten criteria, vendors compromise and serious buyers wait for that unpredictable timing of 'bottoming-out'. Knowing how overvalued and overleveraged many (poor quality) houses are in this country, and how propagandised some people are, that wait could be long! The average New Zealanders' credit card debt is increasing and their mortgage debt is high - often with multiple debts via rental properties. Eg Of the 1.1 million residential bank customers in New Zealand, 27% have more then one mortgage. Eeeek! Reasons for this are complex, but one explanation is how (prior to any formal pension scheme) NZ's housing market has historically been seen an an 'investment' with escalating growth over decades. But in uncharted waters, this situation is a concern when the unemployment rate stands at a decade-high of 5.4% (and that's just those who are recorded, in a country where welfare provision like ACC is harsh and often stigmatised).
Buried within that house sales data are some additional useful indicators of further uncomfortable truths that our legacy media won't discuss. Numbers of 'Mortgagee' sales are up - from virtually zero a couple of years ago to >100 today. It's also a similar picture for searches of 'deceased estate'.
The economy continues to grind to a halt with redundancies chipping away at morale - at the ports, the national airline and, of course the enormously-bloated public sector 'restructures'. The positive spin (in real estate adverts) continues in legacy media, but this weekend was enlightening: I received a cold-call from a real-estate agent's call-centre worker - a database my phone number had remained on, uncontacted, for over 12 years. Change is in the air.
Last week, suspicions about the construction industry were confirmed by StatisticsNZ: there's a slump. Construction has the most company liquidations: 751 firms liquidated in 2025 alone. Across all industries, there were nearly 3,000 company liquidations in 2025 a rise of >17%. (Source)
PPPPs cannot go on for ever, especially when road traffic is down and public transport doesn't really exist outside cities. My own experience has evidenced this for months - eg Kiwi student-apprentices being laid-off, an ESOL student (skilled tradesman) forced to return home to Bangladesh because his boss couldn't provide enough work hours for his visa renewal. Commercial workshops tidied and left empty. There's many more examples.
I wrote recently about the local homelessness situation - and that's not getting any better:
Ursula Edgington
Alongside all these For Sale signs, one explicit and symbolic example of the NZ recession is seen in Auckland's city centre, "Seascape":
Work stopped in August 2024 on the building, following a legal dispute between the developer, Shundi Customs, and the main contractor, China Construction NZ. A tribunal ruled Shundi owed the builder about $33 million, which was not paid. Shundi Customs was placed into receivership in March this year. [latest news article]
Cost of living increases, enormous rates hikes, salaries flat-lining and lost currency values all add to our sparsely-populated country's ongoing economic challenges, and that's on top of the existing workplace issues.
New Zealand's housing malaise has been exacerbated by a wave of affluent New Zealanders opting to leave the country for better economic conditions elsewhere. Statistics New Zealand estimated the country lost 40,000 citizens last year alone, with more than 60% of them moving to Australia, building on two years of similar outflows. (source)
Even our despised ex-PM, Ardern is not resident in her home country! The NZ Reserve Bank's responses seems chaotic. With a review of interest rates due again this week. What way will they vote? What difference will that make?
Meanwhile, the global fuel shortage 'emergency' is portrayed in the press as 'all over', as pump prices are 'back to normal'.
The evidence of our own eyes and ears indicates strongly that the global fuel crisis is NOT 'all over'. As a mainly agriculturally-based country, Diesel is crucial. the transport sector is already suffering significant losses. Some have also rightly pointed out how ambiguous the Government figures are, when publishing levels of fuel storage, use and delivery. The increasing instability of our NZ economy is likely to find a genuine fuel crisis catastrophic. Reality will emerge in time, alongside the inevitable return of covid-era labels bestowed upon 'essential workers'. Who will be allocated 'freedoms' with rationed supplies, who won't?
I'm an optimist at heart. And I'm not an economist. However, as a realist, all the obvious signals are here: whatever the next few months/years presents, for many people, it's not going to be an easy ride in little old New Zealand. Hold on tight.
Thanks for reading! Please comment below your thoughts and feedback always welcome.